On January 16, 2018, I predicted that we would see a bear market in the financial sector over the following 12-18 months. We’re in the 11th month of that prediction, and if someone had shorted XLF at the January high of 30.3255 and exited this week at the low of 24.93, they would have realized a return of approximately 18%.
Not bad, but the question remains: Will XLF continue lower? … More Is the Financial Sector $XLF Nearing a Bottom?
On January 9, 2018, I tweeted that I was bearish on the financial sector over the next 6 to 9 months. I am now extending that to the following prediction: There will be a significant and steady decline in the financial sector beginning this quarter and extending to as early as 12 months and … More The Coming Financial Sector Bear Market
I made a public prediction on January 9, 2018, via Twitter (refined one week later) that the financial sector would experience a bear market within the next 12-18 months. Well, it happened in the 12th month (a tad early), but it is here. The XLF financial select sector SPDR hit 24.30 at the time of this post from it’s 52-week high in January of 30.33. That’s officially a bear market (down 20% from 52-week high) in most books. … More Financial Sector officially in bear market territory
I have been waiting for a “sawtooth” formation in the XLF over the past two months and I now believe we’re in it. I am treating this as an opportunity to short more financial sector ETF shares. This is consistent with my previous posts on this sector.
Today, the Financial Sector ETF (XLF) hit a YTD low of 26.3500, down 13.1% from the high of 30.3255. This is consistent with our earlier predictions of a coming financial sector bear market (also here) and the effect of folks buying bank stocks as a “safe haven” strategy (here). Expect continued erratic up and down … More Financial Sector Hits YTD Low
Right now, I’m looking at Ford Motor (symbol “F”) as very strong in almost all components and assets necessary to take the lead in autonomous vehicles in the future. Toyota is possibly a #2. Still early. Just watching for now.
This is related to my early January post on the coming financial sector bear market. I read the following analysis from Seeking Alpha this morning suggesting that broader market instability will create a “safe haven buying strategy” with bank stocks for the dividend investor, especially given recent earnings reports. The website concludes with: “We are long … More The Downside of Bank Stocks Becoming a Safe Haven Buying Strategy
The Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) hit record lows for 2018 today as part of the Coming Financial Sector Bear Market.
On Jan 9, 2018, I predicted the beginning this quarter of a bear market for the financial sector. This has clearly begun. But what does it mean for everyone else? One thing is that so much of the Dow and S&P 500 Indices are made up of financials that the coming downturn in financials will … More Dow/S&P Need New Leaders Than Financials
Banks have to embrace technology and change their culture to be like startups, DBS CEO Piyush Gupta said, amid growing competition from tech giants like Alibaba. You’ve got to be nimble; you’ve got to be willing to take some risks, you’ve got to have small groups of people who can really be entrepreneurs in the … More ‘Banks have to be nimble like tech firms’
Last week, my new paper “Measuring Black Swans in Financial Markets,” was published in the Journal of Mathematical Finance. These equations were the basis for my January 9th prediction that the financial sector would drop significantly this quarter.