I made a public prediction on January 9, 2018, via Twitter (refined one week later) that the financial sector would experience a bear market within the next 12-18 months. Well, it happened in the 12th month (a tad early), but it is here. The XLF financial select sector SPDR hit 24.30 at the time of this post from it’s 52-week high in January of 30.33. That’s officially a bear market (down 20% from 52-week high) in most books. … More Financial Sector officially in bear market territory
On January 16, 2018, I predicted that we would see a bear market in the financial sector over the following 12-18 months. We’re in the 11th month of that prediction, and if someone had shorted XLF at the January high of 30.3255 and exited this week at the low of 24.93, they would have realized a return of approximately 18%.
Not bad, but the question remains: Will XLF continue lower? … More Is the Financial Sector $XLF Nearing a Bottom?
I have been waiting for a “sawtooth” formation in the XLF over the past two months and I now believe we’re in it. I am treating this as an opportunity to short more financial sector ETF shares. This is consistent with my previous posts on this sector.
Today, the Financial Sector ETF (XLF) hit a YTD low of 26.3500, down 13.1% from the high of 30.3255. This is consistent with our earlier predictions of a coming financial sector bear market (also here) and the effect of folks buying bank stocks as a “safe haven” strategy (here). Expect continued erratic up and down … More Financial Sector Hits YTD Low
Right now, I’m looking at Ford Motor (symbol “F”) as very strong in almost all components and assets necessary to take the lead in autonomous vehicles in the future. Toyota is possibly a #2. Still early. Just watching for now.
This is related to my early January post on the coming financial sector bear market. I read the following analysis from Seeking Alpha this morning suggesting that broader market instability will create a “safe haven buying strategy” with bank stocks for the dividend investor, especially given recent earnings reports. The website concludes with: “We are long … More The Downside of Bank Stocks Becoming a Safe Haven Buying Strategy
I don’t see anything too exciting for Monday… at least not in any of my normal markets. Unless the equations give a 90% probability or higher, I’ve found it’s best to wait. But if AUD JPY moves more than 0.45 pips, Tuesday could be a major opportunity.
My equations are not giving the high probabilities I like (> 88%) for my typical Forex markets, so I’m focusing on some of the Index Futures. One market particularly stands out for Monday, and that is the German DAX Futures (FDAX). From it’s opening on Sunday evening, there’s a 91% chance it will move at least … More My Dax Futures Prediction for Monday
I went in long on GBP/JPY yesterday about 5:30 CT when the FX was around 133.60. Exited this morning at 134.70. Fun ride.
This coming week I think there are three significant opportunities for swing traders. #1. The one that I believe has the most profit potential is the British Pound over the Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY). This market has a 98% chance of moving 1.5 points (1.14%) in either direction and a 61% chance of moving more than 1 point (0.76%) … More The Top 3 Swing Trading Opportunities in Forex This Week